Chances of tropical system increase, but still low

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula for possible tropical development.

The area of disorganized storms and showers over the Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave and low pressure area.

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Check The Palm Beach Post radar map.

 

As of 2 p.m., forecasters are giving the system a 20 percent chance of developing over the next five days as it enters the Bay of Campeche before moving inland.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plan is scheduled to investigate the system in necessary on Friday.

This has been a troublesome spot for storms in the past week. It’s the same place Tropical Storm Danielle popped up Monday, only to quickly dissipate as it hit mainland Mexico.

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If this system becomes a named storm, it would be Earl.

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Tropical Storm Danielle was the third cyclone of 2016 to earn a place in history, forming Monday to become the earliest fourth- named storm on record.

Less than three weeks into the official hurricane season, the feeble system strode into Mexico after sipping on the bathtub-warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and following the June 5 debut of Tropical Storm Colin — the earliest C-named storm on record.

Storms typically develop in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea early in the season because that’s where the water is warmest.

The Bay of Campeche, where Danielle developed, was running 84 to 85 degrees Sunday, according to Weather Underground. Bonnie and Colin gained strength from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and loop current, respectively.

Tropical waves off of Africa that speed west during the peak months of August through early October struggle to tap energy from the Atlantic in June and July.

Where storms form by month:

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