It was a busy start to the Atlantic hurricane season with three named storms on the scoreboard since May and eccentric Hurricane Alex forming in January.
But since Danielle fizzled over central Mexico last month – crickets.
July is normally a quiet month for storms. Since 1851, 118 named storms have spun up in July with 55 becoming hurricanes, according to NOAA.
That’s compared to the busy months of August, September and October, which have seen 378, 571 and 336 storms form since 1851.
AccuWeather hurricane experts said they don’t expect much through the next couple of weeks as the same high pressure system that is turning up the heat in South Florida works against tropical development.
The National Weather Service in Miami issued the first heat advisory for South Florida on Tuesday since 2009 as heat index temperatures were forecast to reach as high as 110 degrees.
“Inhibiting factors may continue to dominate, limiting tropical development through July,” AccuWeather forecasters wrote. “However, there are a few spots where trouble could brew, ahead of a bigger uptick in storms after mid-August.”
Sea surface temperatures in the east and central Atlantic still remain a little cool for tropical formation. Typically, sea surface temperatures need to be about 80 degrees or higher for a tropical system to form and develop.
While temperatures in central and west Atlantic are sufficiently warm, they remain closer to 70 degrees off the coast of Africa where much of the activity is seen as we get further into the season.
“Overall, July is typically a quiet time in the Atlantic basin, so people should not be real surprised about the lull we have at this time,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski. “Moving forward later in the summer, we will look for the Atlantic high pressure area to weaken, dry air to disperse and surface and upper-level winds to weaken.”
But, Kottlowski cautioned that conditions could become more favorable for a tropical system to develop in the far eastern Atlantic later this month.