Update: Disturbance off Florida’s coast could become tropical cyclone

Update 5 p.m.: The National Hurricane Center will not be issuing advisories this forecast cycle for the system located northwest of Daytona Beach.

The news was posted in a special message on the center’s website and leaves open the possibility that advisories could initiate at the 8 p.m. forecast.

Update 1:30 p.m.: An area of low pressure that was given no chance of tropical development this morning has continued to strengthen and could become a tropical cyclone.


The National Hurricane Center now has the system at a 40 percent chance of development and said advisories could be issued later today.

The large area of thunderstorms and showers is producing tropical storm-force winds as it moves north-northwest at 10 to 15 mph, according to the NHC.

“This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone,” forecasters wrote. “Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and tonight.”

Jack Bevan, senior hurricane specialist with the NHC, said the system surprised forecasters overnight by making a right turn and forming an area of low pressure.

While the center of the storm itself has remained over land, thunderstorms have stayed over the Atlantic Ocean, which allowed it to strengthen.

“It’s a little bit unusual, but not unheard of,” Bevan said. “The biggest issue is we did not expect it to stay as close to the coast as it has since it moved inland last night.”


The National Weather Service in Melbourne has a tornado warning out for southeastern Brevard County and said a confirmed tornado was located over Barefoot Bay moving north at 10 mph.

About seven miles off of Daytona Beach, a research ship recorded wind gusts to 63 mph and sustained  winds of 40 mph.

“It’s just that you can see a circulation on the radar near Volusia County and we’ve had some strong gusts near the coast. That kind of got their attention,” said Melbourne-based NWS meteorologist Jerry Combs about the hurricane center increasing development chances. ”

Previous story: 

A tropical disturbance off Florida’s east coast will not develop into a tropical cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center, which downgraded its chances of formation this morning.


The wave, which is off the coast of Melbourne and moving west-northwest, had a 10 percent shot of becoming something more yesterday. But interaction with land dimmed that opportunity.

Check The Palm Beach Post radar map.

That doesn’t mean it won’t bring storm weather to South Florida.

The system, called Invest 93-L, is expected to bring more showers Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast this afternoon, according to National Weather Service forecasters.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today at Palm Beach County beaches and a small risk of waterspouts.

Download the Palm Beach Post WeatherPlus app here.


A chance of thunderstorms is also possible with typical heavy rain, lightning and some gusty wind.

Forecasters are giving Palm Beach County a 70 percent chance of rain, lower than yesterday’s prediction because the system seems to be headed inland further toward central and northern areas of the state.

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a marginal threat of excessive rainfall in northern parts of Palm Beach County. A slight chance of excessive rainfall is forecast for areas of more northern Florida.


While 93-L appears mostly harmless, the hurricane center forecasters have identified a new area in the tropics to watch, giving it a 50 percent chance of development over the next five days.

As of an 8 a.m. advisory, a broad area of low pressure was located a couple hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands heading west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

It has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

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