Weather models “totally failed” so far in forecasting Karl

Score one for Mother Nature. She’s managed to flummox all our fancy forecasting equipment once again.

Tropical Storm Karl weakened to a tropical depression overnight with the 5 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center saying maximum sustained winds are estimated “generously” at 35 mph.

“Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting upper-level winds surrounding Karl,” senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila wrote in the 5 a.m. discussion. “The upper-low near Karl, which unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken, is still strong and producing shear over the cyclone.”

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Avila said most models are still predicting a favorable pattern for the storm to intensify and the official hurricane center forecast predicts it to be a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday morning.

The five-day track now has it only making it to tropical storm strength as it reaches Bermuda on Saturday. On Tuesday, forecasters were still calling for Karl to become a Category 2 hurricane.

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Karl is about 350 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands moving west at about 14 mph.

But Avila notes that the initial motion is “highly uncertain.”

 

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