Tropical disturbance gets 20% chance of development

The National Hurricane Center has identified an area in the Caribbean that forecasters are giving a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days.

The area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles is mostly just a mass of widespread cloudiness and showers.

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Read: November storms rare, but surprises happen 

Although the system is not expected to become tropical over the next few days – it has a 0 percent chance of development over 48 hours – it could acquire some subtropical characteristics later this week or as it moves north-northeastward over the North Atlantic.

Even if the system does develop, it is forecast to move out into the open Atlantic without any impact to land, but it is a small reminder that hurricane season runs through November 30.

November has birthed, in total, four major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Those include 1999’s “wrong way” Lenny, so nicknamed for its strange west-to-east path through the Caribbean, 2001’s Michelle, Paloma in 2008 and Kate, which mustered Category 3 strength in the ultra-warm Gulf before hitting the Panhandle as a Cat 2.

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“Even though you have these arbitrary dates, you can get storms outside of that and with a warming climate you would expect more storms on the fringes,” said Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist with The Weather Channel. “Sometimes systems can be sneaky and pop up quickly.”

Check The Palm Beach Post radar map.

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