Update 1:55 p.m.: The chances of tropical system forming in the eastern Atlantic were increased to 50 percent over the next five days as of the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. advisory.
Forecasters have designated the organizing cluster of thunderstorms Invest 92L, which means they intend to collect data on it and begin running computer models.
A separate disturbance near the Yucatan peninsula continues to have a 60 percent chance of developing over five days. It has a 10 percent chance of developing in 48 hours.
Update 11:10 a.m.: The National Hurricane Center has designated a cluster of thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 92L, which means it intends to collect specialized data on the disturbance and initiate computer models.
Designating a system an “invest” does not give more weight to whether it will become a tropical cyclone.
As of the 8 a.m. outlook, the potential system 92L has a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days.
Invests, short for investigations, are given numbers 90 to 99 and the letter L to designate they are in the Atlantic basin.
The showers and thunderstorms associated with 92L have become better organized, forecasters noted this morning, and there is a 20 percent chance of a tropical system forming over the next 48 hours.
It is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Because 92L is so close to the equator, it will have trouble leveraging Earth’s spin to build up a rotation, which means it will likely be slow to develop.
“Otherwise, conditions are modestly favorable for development: wind shear should remain light to moderate, dry air is expected to stay just to the north and sea surface temperatures of 81 to 82 degrees will be above the seasonal norm along the wave’s track,” wrote Weather Underground founder Jeff Masters in his Category 6 blog.
Previous story: An area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical system over the next five days.
The National Hurricane Center said a low pressure system is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan during the weekend.
After that, conditions become favorable for the system to develop as it moves northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
If the system becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Bret.
The system near the Yucatan is one of two areas the hurricane center is monitoring for possible development.
The second region, which is several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 40 percent chance of developing over 5 days and a 20 percent over the next two days.
Hurricane center forecasters said the Atlantic is “unusually active” for mid-June because of the two disturbances.
While the Yucatan system’s path is forecast to move to the northwest, the South Florida Water Management District is expecting deep tropical moisture to be pushed east, adding to the weekend rain forecast.
The Keys and southwest Florida may take the brunt of the rain, district meteorologists said.
“These storms come on the heels of a week drenched by heavy rains that dropped as much as 14 inches of rain across the region,” according to a district statement.
Last week’s rains left some communities in Boca Raton and Boynton Beach with flooded roads and pooling water. On Thursday, water managers met with local drainage districts to discuss flood prevention.
Residents are also asked to clear storm drains of debris so water can flow more freely from their neighborhoods.
AccuWeather meteorologists said a clockwise flow of dry air expected to develop over the southeastern U.S. early next week that could shield Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the storm.
“However, if this feature is weak or breaks down, then the door could be opened for the tropical system to drift into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather wrote.