11 p.m. UPDATE: The potential cyclone was about 630 miles east-southeast of Trinidad and moving west at 23 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were 40 mph. It was expected to reach the southern Windward Islands by Monday night.
8 p.m. UPDATE: The potential cyclone was about 690 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands and moving west at 23 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were 35 mph.
With the latest advisory, the government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a tropical storm
warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory for a potential tropical cyclone developing in the deep tropical Atlantic.
This is a new alert being issued this year for systems that may pose a threat to land within 48 hours but have not yet formed with a closed circulation.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The potential system is not expected to affect the U.S. coast as a tropical cyclone, and should weaken to a depression mid-week.
If this disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Bret.
Hurricane center forecasters said the disturbance became better organized today, and strengthening is expected. Tropical storm strength could be reached within 36 to 48 hours.
Forecasts are for the system to max out at 50 mph before weakening with increased shear in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
The potential tropical cyclone map looks similar to the traditional storm forecasts, but allow the hurricane center to issue advisories when a low pressure system may be building up steam.
Previously, the hurricane center could not issue advisories until a storm met the meteorological definition of a tropical cyclone — a problem if the storm formed close to shore.
“All of the fuss about why isn’t the hurricane center calling something a storm yet won’t matter anymore,” said James Franklin, chief of the NHC’s hurricane specialist unit, during the National Hurricane Conference in April. “This addresses a gap in our forecasting ability.”
A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula has been given a 70 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours.
The broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms with gale force winds several hundred miles to the east and northeast of the center.
Gradual development is expected while the low moves north-northwestward through tonight and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday.