8 P.M. UPDATE: The showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean is showing signs of organization, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Additional development is possible while it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday, according to the Hurricane Center’s outlook issued at 8 p.m. There’s now a 70 percent chance of formation in the next five days.
It’s also possible for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle of next week after the system passes over the Yucatan peninsula. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Meanwhile, shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming slightly more organized. Some additional slow development is possible during the next two to three days before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions during the middle part of next week.
Forecasters put the chance of development over the next five days at 50 percent as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph.
The National Hurricane Center dropped the chance of development for a system in the central Atlantic Ocean, but forecasters say they expect some development as it heads toward the Antilles.
A large area of disturbed weather more than 1,000 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and still more than 2,000 miles from Florida, has been given a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday afternoon and a 50 percent chance by Thursday afternoon, the NHC said in its 2 p.m. advisory. The system is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph.
Forecasters are also closely watching a system in the central Caribbean Sea that they say is starting to show some signs of organization, with data showing a small area of winds just below tropical-storm force. The system is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph, and forecasters say a tropical depression or storm could form over the Yucatan peninsula Monday or Tuesday.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system Sunday afternoon at this time.