Mother’s Day forecast: Rethink outdoor plans

Mother’s Day could be washout as rainy season perks up.

South Florida’s rainy season may be starting right on time with scattered to numerous showers in the forecast at least through Mother’s Day.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday, with mainly locally heavy rainfall that could add up to more than 4 inches through Tuesday for coastal areas of Palm Beach County.

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Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Miami said a “very prolonged period of high rain chances” is possible, which could help alleviate some of the moderate to severe drought in portions of South Florida.

CHECK The Palm Beach Post live radar map.

Rainfall accumulation forecast through Tuesday morning.

But too much of the wet stuff leaves a potential for localized flooding in low lying and poorly-drained areas.

Rain chances pick up to 60 percent beginning at 2 p.m. Saturday increasing to 70 percent overnight into Sunday and through 7 p.m. Sunday  night.

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The Weather Prediction Center says there is a marginal threat for excessive rainfall Saturday morning into Sunday along the coasts of Broward and Miami Dade counties where the tropical flow will most heavily focus. A marginal risk means there is between a 5 and 10 chance that rainfall could cause flash flooding.

Temperatures will remain seasonally normal with highs this weekend in the low to mid 80s and overnight temperatures in the low 70s at the coast, but cooler inland.

Earlier this week, the heavy rain was forecast to start on Friday, but has since pushed back to Saturday. Timing depends somewhat on the formation of a weak low in the crook of Florida’s big bend area that will suck in tropical moisture.

National Weather Service Mother’s Day forecast

AccuWeather is forecasting Saturday to be more of a mixed bag, but agrees with the NWS forecast for heavy rain Sunday.

AccuWeather Mother’s Day forecast

The Weather Channel also agrees it will be a wet weekend.

The National Weather Service in Miami has designated May 15 through Oct. 15 as the permanent dates for the rainy season, fixing the days similar to the set time frame given for hurricane season.

Robert Molleda, the warning coordination meteorologist with the NWS in Miami, announced the change Thursday, saying it will help increase awareness of what can be the most dangerous time of year for weather in South Florida.

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“We get most of our rainfall and all the associated hazards — lightning, flooding, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms — during this time,” he said. “I think we can use it as a way to get everyone ready for the rainy season similar to the way we get ready for hurricane season.”

U.S. Drought Monitor report released May 10, 2018

In the past, the rainy season was determined by looking at dew point temperatures, sea surface temperatures and an established pattern of rainfall typical to the rainy season — at least three consecutive days.

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