UPDATE: Return of Kirk? Chance of tropical storm reforming up to 70%

Tropical Weather Outlook

8 p.m. UPDATE: The remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk are likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean, according to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

STORM 2018: The next Tropical Outlook will be issued at 2 a.m. Click here for an update

At 8 p.m., the remnants were about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands and moving quickly westward at 20-25 mph. Chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours was 70 percent.

Meanwhile, off the coast of North Carolina, a low pressure area still has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the circulation has become better defined but the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.

The system, centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, could develop as it moves northward near or over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina. Regardless of development, it’s likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight.

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A third potential system in the Atlantic, Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over open waters, no threat to land. Chance of formation through five days is 80 percent.

Original story:

The remnants of Kirk are gaining momentum east of the Windward Islands with a 60 percent chance they will regain tropical cyclone status over the next 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Kirk’s chances this morning as the cluster of thunderstorms moves quickly west at about 25 mph. As of the 8 a.m. advisory, Kirk was 950 miles east of the Windward Islands.

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“This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its north side,” forecasters wrote.

But the long-term forecast for Kirk is not optimistic for a lengthy life. The system is expected to run into heavy wind shear as it enters the Caribbean Sea, which will likely work to tear it apart.

STORM 2018: CHECK THE INTERACTIVE TRACKING MAP

Another system, about 260  miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., could become a tropical depression today as it moves northwestward. Hurricane center forecasters are giving it a 50 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours.

But, as with the remnants of Kirk, it’s not expected to do much long term. If it doesn’t develop today, it probably won’t.

Regardless of development, the Carolinas are expected to get unwanted scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast from this system.

GOES-East satellite image of disturbance off the Carolinas on Sept. 25, 2018.