UPDATE: Tropical Storm Michael could form Sunday, take aim at Gulf coast

11 p.m. UPDATE: A disturbance off the Central American coast is likely to grow into a tropical storm that could bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico, Cuba and the U.S. Gulf coast, the National Hurricane Center says.

Forecasters said Tropical Storm Michael is likely to form Sunday night and could reach the Gulf coast by Wednesday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the western tip of Cuba, while a tropical storm watch has been called for the resort region of the Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM 2018: CHECK THE INTERACTIVE TRACKING MAP

Forecasters said they don’t project the storm to reach hurricane force, but it could bring 3 to 7 inches of rain to western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.

At 11 p.m., the disturbance was about 120 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico, and heading north at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.

UPDATE: Potential tropical storm sparks warning in Cuba; forecast track includes Florida PanhandleDevelopment chances high for tropical disturbance in Gulf

6 p.m. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, including a tropical storm warning for Cuba.

At 5 p.m., the system was about 290 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph, 9 mph shy of tropical storm strength.

STORM 2018: CHECK THE INTERACTIVE TRACKING MAP

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. There’s an 80 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and 90 percent chance over the next 5 days.

On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Check the latest Tropical Outlook

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A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now has an 80 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday as the system moves slowly northward.

If the area of low pressure becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.

The disturbance will bring torrential rains to part of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba into next week. Formation chance within the next five days is high at 90 percent.

Rain chances in Palm Beach County will increase on Monday to 50 percent, and raise even higher to 60 percent on Wednesday. Temperatures will be consistent with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s, according to the National Weather Service.