11 p.m. UPDATE: Florida Gov. Rick Scott today warned that Tropical Storm Michael, which appears to be headed for the Florida Panhandle, could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 miles per hour by the time it makes landfall at midweek.
“If this storm hit Panama City, Tampa could still have storm surge,” said Scott, referring to two Florida cities about 375 miles apart by highway. “Every family must be prepared.”
11 p.m. UPDATE: A disturbance off the Central American coast is likely to grow into a tropical storm that could bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico, Cuba and the U.S. Gulf coast, the National Hurricane Center says.
Forecasters said Tropical Storm Michael is likely to form Sunday night and could reach the Gulf coast by Wednesday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the western tip of Cuba, while a tropical storm watch has been called for the resort region of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Forecasters said they don’t project the storm to reach hurricane force, but it could bring 3 to 7 inches of rain to western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.
At 11 p.m., the disturbance was about 120 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico, and heading north at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.
6 p.m. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, including a tropical storm warning for Cuba.
At 5 p.m., the system was about 290 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph, 9 mph shy of tropical storm strength.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. There’s an 80 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and 90 percent chance over the next 5 days.
On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday as the system moves slowly northward.
If the area of low pressure becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
The disturbance will bring torrential rains to part of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba into next week. Formation chance within the next five days is high at 90 percent.
Rain chances in Palm Beach County will increase on Monday to 50 percent, and raise even higher to 60 percent on Wednesday. Temperatures will be consistent with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s, according to the National Weather Service.
UPDATE 12:17 p.m.: Kirk lost its center circulation this morning, meaning it no longer fits the definition of a tropical cyclone.
The National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories on the system, but its remnants will be monitored as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles.
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UPDATE 8 a.m.: The Carolinas could be in store for another round of unwanted rain as a low pressure system between Bermuda and the Bahamas finds a more conducive environment for strengthening as it moves west-northwest.
The area, which was given a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days, is in an area with slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, but is expected to reach even warmer waters this week.
Satellite image of area being watched by the NHC, Sept. 24, 2018.
Still, most models show an increasing amount of wind shear hitting the system by Wednesday, which would weaken cyclonic development.
Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, said the system, dubbed 98L, could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to eastern North Carolina over the next week.
Rainfall accumulation forecast through Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.
If the area of low pressure near the Carolinas were to become a named storm it would be Michael.
Kirk, which became the season’s 11th named storm on Saturday, has weakened to a depression but could see some restrengthening before hitting the “ever-present wall of wind shear near” near the Lesser Antilles, Masters said.
That wind shear is expected to tear Kirk apart later this week.
According to the National Hurricane Center, four named storms develop in the Atlantic after mid-September in an average season, three of which become hurricanes and one of which becomes a Category 3 or stronger hurricane.
While the 2018 season remains above normal for this time of year with 12 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, it has one fewer major hurricane than normal.
Florence has been the only storm to become a major hurricane of Cat 3 or stronger.
The number of named storms is challenging forecasters’ predictions for an average storm season.
The Climate Prediction Center’s August forecast predicted 9 to 13 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes.
“This year, despite the recent uptick in activity, the overall activity remains typical of a less active season,” said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the Climate Prediction Center. “For example, only two of seven storms since August 1have become hurricanes. This propensity for weaker, shorter-lived storms is typical of a less active season.”
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National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Kirk has weakened to a tropical depression as it moves quickly west across the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center said it had 35-mph maximum sustained winds, which were expected to strengthen but then lessen and dissipate the next few days.
Meanwhile subtropical storm Leslie is lingering in the Central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds at 40 miles per hour. It’s not expected to move much today, nor gain strength until it merges with a frontal system in the next two or three days.
Lastly, there is an area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas that has a 30 percent of forming into a depression within 48 hours.
11 p.m. UPDATE: Tropical Storm Kirk’s top sustained winds decreased to near 35 mph as it accelerated westward across the Atlantic, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory. It’s now a tropical depression.
Kirk is about 835 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands and moving rapidly around 25 mph.
Little change in the maximum winds is forecast during the next several days. But forecasters said Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic over the next several days.
5 p.m. UPDATE: Tropical Storm Kirk continues on its rapid westward trek across the tropical Atlantic, speeding due west at 23 mph, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory.
Kirk is about 645 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
However, Kirk could encounter shear that could weaken the storm over the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, newly named Subtropical Storm Leslie is crawling toward the west in the middle of the Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, but Leslie is forecast to dissipate in a few days.
11 am update of Tropical Storm Kirk. (NHC)
11 a.m. UPDATE: Tropical Storm Kirk continues its westward trek, and is now moving west at 21 mph. It is 545 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and still has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Kirk’s forecast of continued westward movement and strengthening early in the week hasn’t changed.
Meanwhile, a new storm, Leslie, has formed. A subtropical storm, Leslie has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and is out in the middle of the Atlantic on the same latitude as South Carolina. Leslie is only moving west at about 3 mph and isn’t expected to move very far in the next two days, forecasters say.
Subtropical Storm Leslie’s first update at 11 a.m. Sunday. (NHC)
NHC forecasters predict Leslie will likely be absorbed by a larger low-pressure system by mid-week.
Finally, Tropical Depression 11 is no more. The remnants of the depression were expected to weaken further in the next day or so. They have maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and are about 350 miles east-northeast of the Windward Islands.
Atlantic Ocean- Tropical Depression 11 and Other storms On this Sunday the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands ….https://t.co/garxEbOHTlpic.twitter.com/iH5TWSeWx8
ORIGINAL STORY: Tropical Storm Kirk continues to move west through the Atlantic, and forecasters continue to predict it may be in the Caribbean by Thursday morning.
As of 5 a.m., Kirk was 465 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, heading west at 18 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters say Kirk will begin moving more quickly across the ocean as of Tuesday and is expected to strengthen in the next two days. However, they add it may begin weakening in the middle of the week.
The 5 a.m. update on Tropical Depression 11. (NHC)
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 11, what forecasters are calling a “poorly organized” storm, is likely to dissipate by this evening. It’s 415 miles east-northeast of the Windward Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.
More than 5 million people were under hurricane warnings or watches on the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday as Hurricane Florence barreled toward the Carolinas with Category 4 winds and an expected landfall Friday, according to the National Weather Service.
Motorists streamed inland on highways converted into one-way evacuation routes as about 1.7 million people in three states were warned to get out of the way of Florence, the Associated Press reported.
“This storm is a monster,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said. “It’s big and it’s vicious. It is an extremely dangerous, life-threatening, historic hurricane.”
At 11 p.m., Florence was about 355 miles southwest of Bermuda and 670 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C., according to the National Hurricane Center. Top sustained winds remained at 140 mph.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaac continued to weaken slightly as it moved toward the Caribbean. Top winds dropped to 65 mph at 11 p.m.
A tropical storm warning was issued for Martinique, Guadeloupe and Dominica. Tropical storm conditions are expected on those islands by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Hurricane Helene is still packing 100-mph winds but it should soon fade away as it moves into the open ocean.
According to the hurricane center, gradual weakening is likely over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday. Helene is forecast to accelerate and turn toward the northeast by the end of the week.
UPDATE 8 p.m.: Hurricane Florence remains at 140 mph as it threatens the U.S. East Coast with deadly storm surge and heavy rainfall. At 8 p.m., the storm was about 725 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C., according to the National Hurricane Center.
On the current forecast track, the hurricane center predicts, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, then approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.
Strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaac began to lose some of its organization as it moved quickly westward about 610 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Isaac is forecast to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, into the eastern Caribbean on Thursday night, then into the central Caribbean by the weekend.
At 8 p.m., Isaac’s maximum sustained winds were 70 mph, just below hurricane strength. The storm is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast later on Friday and Saturday.
UPDATE 5 p.m.: Hurricane Florence’s wind speeds increased to 140 mph this afternoon as hurricane and storm surge warnings go up along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast.
A hurricane warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected in the area within 36 hours.
As of 5 p.m., Florence was about 785 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C., and moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
While Florence is expected to reach wind speeds of 150 mph, the forecast calls for it to decrease to a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane near landfall.
UPDATE 2 p.m.: Hurricane Florence maintained 130 mph wind speeds this afternoon, but is getting better organized and growing in size.
National Hurricane Center forecasters during the intermediate 2 p.m. advisory said hurricane-force winds have expanded outward up to 60 miles with tropical storm-force winds reaching out 170 miles from the storm’s center.
There were no changes to the storm surge watches and warnings for the Carolina’s. Forecasters are predicting between a 2-to 12-foot surge depending on where the storm comes ashore and if the peak surge occurs during high tide.
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern Caribbean could become a tropical depression Thursday as it moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters gave it a 50 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance of formation over five days.
If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Joyce.
UPDATE 11 a.m.: Hurricane Florence lost some wind speed this morning, but is expected to restrengthen today as it crosses warm water as it stays on a track toward the coast.
The National Hurricane Center estimates Florence is a low-end Cat 4 storm with 130 mph winds, but will regain 140 mph power, and possibly grow to have wind speeds of 150 mph.
There has been no significant change in Florence’s track, which has it making landfall late Thursday or early Friday somewhere along the coastline of the Carolina’s.
Tropical Storm Isaac has triggered new watches for Caribbean islands.
Hurricane watches have also been issued for Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for Antigua and Montserrat.
9/11 1100 AM AST: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Antigua and Montserrat. Full advisory on #Isaac: https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFbpic.twitter.com/IKl2mWmEBh
The National Hurricane Center this morning issued hurricane and storm surge watches for much of the North Carolina and South Carolina coastline, with Florence expected to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall late Thursday or early Friday.
As of the 5 a.m. advisory, Florence was a 140-mph storm about 975 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C. It was moving west-northwest at 15 mph.
A special update issued at 7:45 a.m. said Hurricane Hunters found Florence had weakened to 130 mph, but is expected to restrengthen later today.
“These fluctuations are normal. There is nothing to stop this in the atmosphere from it staying a major hurricane,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said Florence’s wind speeds could fluctuate as it nears the coast, but that it is expected to remain a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.
A hurricane watch means tropical storm force winds are expected within the next 48 hours.
While storm surge and wind damage are major concerns, the threat of inland flooding from torrential rains is increasing as the storm is forecast to meander over the eastern portions of the coast.
The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting as much as 20 inches of rain over part of North Carolina through Tuesday.
“That’s the really scary scenario with Florence,” said Michael Bell, an associate professor for science at Colorado State University. “Certainly, we’re not expecting a Hurricane Harvey, which was almost eight days of rain. But even a few days of tropical rainfall can cause flooding.”
According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, the last time there was a storm as strong as Florence as far north as it is was 2010’s Hurricane Earl.
While mid-August through mid-October is the busiest period for Atlantic hurricanes, Sept. 10 is the pinnacle — a time when warm water and low wind shear conspire in earnest to turn tropical waves into menacing storms.
“It sure is living up to that distinction this year,” Klotzbach said Monday in a social media post. “Currently we have three hurricanes and two other areas given a medium chance of development in the next five days.”
Isaac fell to a tropical storm late Monday, but is expected to restrengthen briefly before weakening again.
Hurricane Florence, Tropical Storm Isaac and Hurricane Helene.
The recent flurry of Atlantic #hurricane activity has pushed 2018 Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to above-normal levels to date. Atlantic ACE will continue to skyrocket over the next several days. #Florence#Helene#Isaacpic.twitter.com/jQQtd2Gz1Y
The disturbance south of Cuba was given a 60 percent chance of development this morning with a tropical depression expected to form Thursday or Friday.
Regardless of development, forecasters warned that heavy rainfall is possible in Texas and Louisiana from the system.
In the northeastern Atlantic, a non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic. It has a 50 percent chance of development over five days.
The next names on the 2018 storm list are Joyce and Kirk.
UPDATE 6:30 a.m.: Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from heavy rainfall, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, which may cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
UPDATE 11 p.m.: Hurricane Florence is taking aim at the U.S. East Coast with Category 4 winds, spurring North Carolina’s governor to urge coastal residents to evacuate. At 11 p.m., the storm’s winds remained at 140 mph but some strengthening is expected, according to the National Hurricane Center.
On the current forecast track, the hurricane center predicts, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday, then approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is urging residents to evacuate the state’s coastal areas as Florence moves closer to landfall.
A tropical wave coming off Africa has a 60 percent chance of developing in the next five days as it moves over the eastern Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 a.m. tropical outlook. The chance of development in 48 hours is 60 percent.
Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose all spun simultaneously in September 2017.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued its 2018 hurricane forecast, calling for a near, or above normal, hurricane season with 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 1-4 major hurricanes of Cat 3 strength or higher.
The average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster for the Climate Prediction Center, said he is not expecting the 2018 hurricane season to be as active as 2017, but that 5 to 9 hurricanes is “quite a few hurricanes.”
“There is no climate signature saying that it will be extremely active or inactive,” Bell said. “That still means a lot of storms forming in the Atlantic.”
Although hurricane season doesn’t officially begin until June 1, there is already something to watch in the Gulf of Mexico. Invest 90L is likely to become the first named storm of the season over the weekend with an 80 percent chance of development in the next five days.
“Regardless of what does or doesn’t form over the Gulf this weekend, heavy rains and localized flooding are the main concern and are expected in many portions of Florida, the northern Gulf Coast, and inland areas of the Southeastern state,” said Weather Channel hurricane expert Rick Knabb, who is a former director of the National Hurricane Center. “Be especially careful on the roads in these areas during the next week.”
At least 20 research groups, private companies and universities churn out annual hurricane forecasts, including the University of Arizona, The Weather Company and Pennsylvania State University’s Earth System Science Center.
In April, Colorado State University released its hurricane forecast, calling for a slightly above normal season. It predicted 2018 will have 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
That’s fewer than the 17 named storms of the 2017 hurricane season, which included 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of CSU’s forecast, said El Nino is one of the main factors he considers when making a prediction. CSU will update its forecast May 31.
El Nino, which is known to reduce tropical activity, is a periodic warming of the water temperatures across the eastern path of the Pacific Ocean. The warm water shifts rainfall patterns, suppressing rain over Indonesia and moving it to the eastern part of the Pacific.
This changes upper air patterns, shifting the subtropical jet stream so it is in a better position to cut the tops off Atlantic hurricanes with strong vertical shear — winds moving at different speeds and directions in different levels of the atmosphere.
Update, 12:50 p.m.: A significant weather advisory has been issued for southeastern Palm Beach County until 1:30 p.m.
National Weather Service meteorologists are tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sawgrass Mills Mall in Sunrise moving north at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with this storm, which is producing torrential rainfall and may lead to flooding.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
The Weather Service is warning that this slow-moving storm could quickly saturate areas this afternoon, causing floods and concern for the evening commute.
Original post: Don’t expect to see the sun anytime soon – especially this afternoon as a threat of severe thunderstorms and lightning is expected, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Additional rainfall is expected throughout the afternoon – primarily between 1 and 7 p.m. – along with the rest of the week. A large area of deep tropical moisture will continue to stream northward across South Florida through the weekend. This will result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Flooding could occur.
Heavy rain is expected in southern Palm Beach County around 1 p.m. and it will continue moving up into metropolitan West Palm Beach by 2 p.m.
And the rain isn’t going to let up. There is a 40 percent chance or higher for each of the next seven days in South Florida along with a high risk of lightning today through Monday.
In Palm Beach County, some areas have received up to 3 inches of rain in the past 6 days. In Broward and west Miami Dade counties, some spots have received 6 inches of rain in that span.
This afternoon, most of the showers and thunderstorms will be moving from the southwest to the northeast, a similar path of a strong cell that developed late Thursday. High temperatures will in the low to mid-80s. Breezy winds out of the southeast. Rain chances will continue into the early evening hours.
“Lightning obviously is a big concern,” said National Weather Service lead forecaster Robert Garcia. “We might also have some hail and conditions are ripe for funnel clouds and water spouts. That’s not out of the question. This is very reflective of the summertime pattern.”
Garcia said the afternoon rain is from a massive amount of tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico that is slowly moving.
“We might have some storms right on top of each other which could cause some localized flooding,” Garcia said of this afternoon.
Tonight, isolated rainfall, but not as heavy, is possible. Low temperatures will be in the low 70s.
It was a showdown with Florida flair — a Martin County business with billionaire backing versus a 77-year-old environmentalist with a constitution as tough as Dade County Pine.
For eight days, the case of mining company Lake Point Restoration against storied Everglades protector Maggy Hurchalla played out in front of a jury.
Was their conflict that of a company wronged by a conservationist’s influence over public officials, or a well-heeled entrepreneur with a grudge and the money to satisfy it in a prolonged legal rumble?
On Wednesday, the six-member jury sided with Lake Point, charging Hurchalla with interfering in an agreement between the company and Martin County, and levying a $4.3 million judgment against her.
Stuart environmentalist Maggy Hurchalla stands behind Florida Oceanographic Society Executive Director Mark Perry on January 16, 2015. (Richard Graulich / The Palm Beach Post)
Hurchalla, a former Martin County commissioner and sister to the late U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno, said she will appeal.
“I’m disappointed,” she said leaving the courtroom. “I think the judge made some very bad rulings of law.”
Lake Point Restoration near Port Mayaca is a controversial public-private partnership mining coarse aggregate, base rock, rip-rap and specialty sand products. (Allen Eyestone / The Palm Beach Post)
