UPDATE: Heavy rains moving into Boca, southern Palm Beach County; flooding possible

Update, 12:50 p.m.: A significant weather advisory has been issued for southeastern Palm Beach County until 1:30 p.m.

National Weather Service meteorologists are tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sawgrass Mills Mall in Sunrise moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with this storm, which is producing torrential rainfall and may lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.

The Weather Service is warning that this slow-moving storm could quickly saturate areas this afternoon, causing floods and concern for the evening commute.

Original post: Don’t expect to see the sun anytime soon – especially this afternoon as a threat of severe thunderstorms and lightning is expected, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

Additional rainfall is expected throughout the afternoon – primarily between 1 and 7 p.m. – along with the rest of the week. A large area of deep tropical moisture will continue to stream northward across South Florida through the weekend. This will result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Flooding could occur.

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Heavy rain is expected in southern Palm Beach County around 1 p.m. and it will continue moving up into metropolitan West Palm Beach by 2 p.m.

And the rain isn’t going to let up. There is a 40 percent chance or higher for each of the next seven days in South Florida along with a high risk of lightning today through Monday.

In Palm Beach County, some areas have received up to 3 inches of rain in the past 6 days. In Broward and west Miami Dade counties, some spots have received 6 inches of rain in that span.

This afternoon, most of the showers and thunderstorms will be moving from the southwest to the northeast, a similar path of a strong cell that developed late Thursday.  High temperatures will in the low to mid-80s. Breezy winds out of the southeast.  Rain chances will continue into the early evening hours.

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“Lightning obviously is a big concern,” said National Weather Service lead forecaster Robert Garcia. “We might also have some hail and conditions are ripe for funnel clouds and water spouts. That’s not out of the question. This is very reflective of the summertime pattern.”

Garcia said the afternoon rain is from a massive amount of tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico that is slowly moving.

“We might have some storms right on top of each other which could cause some localized flooding,” Garcia said of this afternoon.

 

Tonight, isolated rainfall, but not as heavy, is possible.  Low temperatures will be in the low 70s.

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System bringing rain to South Florida has low chance of forming; system near Mexico has better chance

8 p.m. UPDATE: The shower and thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean
is beginning to show some signs of organization and now has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical system over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days, according to the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook. There’s a 50 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours.

The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, then into the northwestern Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, forecasters say. It’s likely to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

The next tropical outlook will be issued at 2 a.m.

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Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure extending northward from Cuba continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms across South Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters.

RELATED: South Florida to stay wet, windy all week as king tides near

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been recorded in some of the heavier showers, the hurricane center said.

Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and South Florida during the next couple of days. There’s just a 10 percent chance of tropical development.

RELATED: Delray preps for King Tide coastal flooding and a super soaking

Continue reading “System bringing rain to South Florida has low chance of forming; system near Mexico has better chance”

UPDATE: Counties order evacuations as Harvey nears Texas

8 p.m. UPDATE: More counties along the Texas Gulf coast are ordering mandatory evacuations as Hurricane Harvey becomes a growing menace to the area.
CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

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5 p.m. UPDATE: With the rapidly strengthening Hurricane Harvey bearing down on the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center ominously warned residents that preparations “should be rushed to completion.”

Projections show it weakening before it makes landfall, but at the very least, forecasters said, Harvey would bring a “life threatening” storm surge and “devastating” freshwater flooding.

The hurricane center also warned that a combination of storm surge and tides will bring rising waters inland, rising to 3 to 8 feet in parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana, and as much as 12 feet near Texas’ Padre Island National Seashore.

The hurricane center has issued tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings for parts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. It said ominously that preparations

At 5 p.m., the storm was about 300 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and about the same distance south-southeast of Port O’Connor. It was moving north-northwest at 10 mph.

 

 

UPDATE 2pm:

Harvey, a storm that had fizzled, came back Thursday as a full-fledged hurricane, the third of the season, and threatened the Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center said in a 1 p.m. advisory that a Hurricane Hunter plane that flew into the storm reported it had top winds of 80 mph.

The hurricane center had said in an earlier advisory that Harvey was “quickly strengthening and forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the middle Texas coast,” the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. bulletin. A “major” hurricane is one of at least Category 3 on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson Scale, with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

At 1 p.m., Hurricane Harvey was about 340 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and about the same distance south-southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas. It was moving west at 10 mph.

Harvey was expected to turn west and slow down, and make landfall in Texas Friday night or early Saturday, then stall all weekend, dropping rains across the area of 12 to 20 inches, perhaps even 30 inches in spots.

Projections show it weakening before it makes landfall, but at the very least, forecasters said, Harvey would bring a “life threatening” storm surge and freshwater flooding.

The hurricane center has issued tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings for parts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Harvey forms; 70% chance of new system

Tropical outlook

8 P.M. UPDATE: Harvey is headed toward the Windward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica. The next update will be at 11 p.m.

Meanwhile, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure about 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical system. The next tropical outlook will be at 2 a.m.

Track the tropics

Update 5 pm: Tropical Storm Harvey, the eighth named storm of the year, has formed, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. advisory. It said a Hurricane Hunter plane that flew into the system had clocked top sustained winds at 40 mph, 3 mph over the threshold to become a tropical storm. At 5 p.m., the storm was about 250 miles east of Barbados and was moving west at about 18 mph. Its forecast track sends it into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as a minimal hurricane early next week. It said the system will bring rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, to the Windward Islands.

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Update 2pm: A Hurricane Hunter plane is flying into Tropical Depression 9, which could become Tropical Storm Harvey by later today, the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 p.m. update. At 2 p.m., the system was about 295 miles east of Barbados, with 35 mph sustained winds at 35 mph. It was moving west at 17 mph.

Update 11 a.m.: Tropical Depression 9 has formed and could become Tropical Storm Harvey as early as this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. in its first advisory on the system.

At 11 a.m., the depression was about 365 miles east of Barbados, or about 2,000 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach. It was heading due west at about 17 mph, and the 5-day forecast pushes it into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week.

It had top sustained winds of 35 mph, just 2 mph below the threshold to become a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings were posted for Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine and St. Lucia, and a watch for Dominica.

The Hurricane Center also said at 11 a.m. that Hurricane Gert, in the North Atlantic, is “quickly becoming extratropical, and the transition process should complete later today,” the update said. It said the system should bang into, and be swallowed by, another extratropical system in the next 48 hours.

10:30 a.m.: Hurricane Gert, far to the north, is no threat to Florida, and neither are three systems moving their way across the ocean, at least for now, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook.

The low-pressure system about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles became better organized overnight and could be a tropical depression later today or tonight. It has an 80 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours. The hurricane center said it plans to issue advisories around midday.

A second area about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African Coast  is moving west at 15  to 20 mph. The outlook did give the system a 50 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours. But, it said, “upper-level wind are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation” by this weekend.

And a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands, just off the African coast, could develop during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwest at about 15 mph, the outlook said. It said the chance of formation in the next five days is 40 percent.

Gert is several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and racing into the North Atlantic.

Odds of tropical system becoming depression or storm drop to 60 percent

Forecasters  say a tropical system in the open Atlantic still could become a depression as early as Wednesday, but on Wednesday afternoon dropped the odds of that happening from 70 percent to 60 percent.

The National Hurricane Center had said in its 8 a.m. tropical weather outlook that it expected conditions eventually to “become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.”

The 2 p.m. outlook said the low pressure system, now about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and some 3,000 miles from the southeastern United States, “still has
the potential to become a tropical depression before it moves west-northwestward into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two.”

The next update is set for 2 a.m. Thursday.

 

 

Hurricane Center: System could become depression today

A tropical system in the open Atlantic could become a depression as early as today, but then “conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation,” the National Hurricane Center said in its morning tropical weather outlook.

At 8 a.m. Wednesday, the system was about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands, still some 3,000 miles away from the southeastern United States.

In a posting, forecaster Lixion Avila gave a 70 percent chance the storm will form into a depression or storm in the next 48 hours. While the system had “has become better defined,” Avila said,  “the associated thunderstorm activity is not well organized.”

Avila said the system’s movement mostly has stalled but it should begin a west-northwest track at 10 to 15 mph today.

 

Tropical outlook, 8 p.m. July 4, 2017

Hurricane center: system still has high chance of becoming tropical depression

Forecasters Monday afternoon repeated that a nearly stationary area of low pressure about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde island chain could become a tropical depression later this week.

The system still is thousands of miles from the U.S. mainland, and would not be a threat until next week, if ever.

The National Hurricane Center, in its 2 p.m. tropical weather update, said the chance of formation in the next five days still was 70 percent, but upped the chance of formation in the next two days from 20 percent to 30 percent, still low.

“Gradual development of this system is likely,” hurricane center forecaster John Cangialosi said in an advisory.  “The disturbance is expected to begin moving west-northwestward in a day or so, and it should continue moving in that direction through the remainder of the week.”

 

 

Update: Rains may hit harder Monday morning

 

Update, 8 p.m.: The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center, and the local forecast, are a bit more dreary than some of the earlier versions. The weather system over Cuba is more likely to get better organized and rain is expected more often in West Palm Beach, with some gustier winds. But wet and gusty beats worries earlier in the week of damaging winds.

The latest forecasts suggest the most likely impact in the next two days is rain peaking from around 2 a.m. Monday to around 2 p.m. Monday. That could bring about two-thirds of an inch of rain to West Palm Beach and about three-quarters of an inch to Boca Raton in those hours. That’s a decent soak, but not enough to launch an ark.

The weather system over Cuba now may organize as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico — it’s now given even odds to do that. The hurricane center’s 8 p.m. “tropical weather outlook” gave the system a 40 percent chance of forming into a tropical system in the ensuing 48 hours — it was 20 percent Saturday morning — but kept at 50 percent the chance of that happening in the next five days. By then, it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on South Florida.

That weather pattern soaked Cuba with three to five inches of rain on Saturday afternoon. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to check out the storm Sunday. The weather system has already caused some flooding in the Florida Keys.

Between a risk of rip currents and possibly persistent rain, Sunday would be a bad day to spend at the beach in Palm Beach County — but it shouldn’t be a day to cover up the windows of your house.

Update, 3:30 p.m.:  Get out your umbrella and clear your storm drains — but don’t put up your hurricane shutters. Southeast Palm Beach County could get about 4 inches of rain through StormTotalQPF_SFC_sippolitWednesday morning as a tropical system brings rain but not the damaging winds that had been feared. The heaviest rains could hit Sunday.

A new briefing from the National Weather Service in Miami suggests the heaviest rains — seven inches — could hit Florida’s keys. Much of Palm Beach County is expected to get several inches of rain from the weather system known as Invest 99L. The agency warned of flooding:

“Regardless of development, periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of South Florida this weekend, particularly on Sunday, and continue through early next week. With locally heavier amounts possible, which may fall in a short period of time, urban flood is a concern for all metro areas of South Florida.”

The National Weather Service now says there’s a high risk of rip currents Sunday and possibly Monday, as well as a moderate risk of flooding Sunday through Tuesday in localized areas.

UPDATE, 2 p.m.: A chance of thunderstorms and rain, some locally heavy. The potential for localized flooding. A moderate risk of rip currents. All in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. But, the National Weather Service says, just like they would be in any summer thunderstorm event.

While rain showers were brewing Saturday afternoon out by Lake Okeechobee, “It’s looking less and less likely” that the tropical system will bring unusually strong weather to Palm Beach County, meteorologist Maria Torres said from the weather service office near Miami.

She said her office had no immediate plans to issue any flood warnings or watches.

The hurricane center’s 2 p.m. “tropical weather outlook” gave the system a 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical system in the ensuing 48 hours — it was 20 percent Saturday morning — but kept at 40 percent the chance of that happening in the next five days.

“Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph,” the outlook said.

It said the environment will be better for development early next week when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and said gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday.

EARLIER BLOG:The tropical mess that’s had South Florida’s attention for the past few days continued Saturday to limp through the Bahamas, with rain its greatest threat to Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast.

The National Hurricane Center’s “tropical weather outlook” for 8 a.m. Saturday said the system for now just a “weak area of low pressure” was south of Andros Island and “continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center.”

It gave just a 20 percent chance of the system forming in the next 48 hours and just a 40 percent chance of forming even in the next five days.

The outlook said conditions aren’t promising for significant development in the next two days while the system moves west-northwest through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph, but that could change as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.

It is expected to bring heavy rains over eastern and central Cuba and over the Bahamas, which also could get gusty winds. Those conditions would spread into the Keys and parts of southern Florida this weekend.

The National Weather Service’s Miami office said early Saturday in a “hazardous weather outlook” that “regardless of the potential tropical system, thunderstorms are likely into early next week.”

It called for a threat of heavy rainfall causing flooding, as well as increased threats of rip currents, particularly Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered storms are possible today, with the usual moderate risk of rip currents. Thunderstorms are possible with a chance of lightning and urban street flooding in east coast urban areas, but they’re more likely over the interior and Gulf Coast, the weather service said.

And it will be toasty, with the heat index into triple digits across the region.

The weather service calls for a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s today. Forecasters expect a partly sunny start to the day with cloud cover and rain chances increasing as the day wears on. Expect breezy conditions, as well, with east winds of 15-20 mph and higher gusts in heavier rain bursts. Tonight, rain chances remain relatively high with a slight chance of thunderstorms along with an east wind of 15-20 mph. Lows will be in the upper 70s.

 

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